Ultimately, whether the market’s four-week bet proves accurate will depend on geopolitical developments in the coming days. Struyven is closely watching for signals regarding the conflict’s length, noting that sweeping goals like “regime change” from the U.S. administration could indicate a protracted war, while narrower military goals or the rise of a reformist leader in Iran could offer an off-ramp for a shorter conflict. For now, Wall Street is pricing in a month of turmoil, hoping the physical flow of oil resumes before prices are forced into the triple digits.
美國總統特朗普（（Donald Trump，川普））聲稱伊朗最高領袖阿亞圖拉·阿里·哈梅內伊（Ayatollah Ali Khamenei）在美以空襲的第一天就已身亡，這無疑加劇了局勢的危險性。伊朗國家電視台隨後證實了哈梅內伊的死訊。
，更多细节参见51吃瓜
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